Technical Assistant to the Director General of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), James Ijampe-Adamu has warned farmers not to rush into planting following early rains, saying pre-season showers do not signal the start of the 2026 rainy season and could lead to significant agricultural losses.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE News on Wednesday, he said the agency’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) highlights pre-onset rains that may confuse farmers, particularly in the southern parts of the country.
“As stated clearly by the Honourable Minister for Aviation and Aerospace Development, the forecast has been categorised into three. We have what we call the pre-onsets,” he said.
“The pre-onsets are rainfalls that, like in Abuja this week, you experienced some light showers and things like that.”
He cautioned that these early rains should not be mistaken for the beginning of the farming season.
“This is confusing to farmers, particularly in the South when we’ve had some rains in January. The intensity was a bit high. And the caution there is that after this pre-onset activity, there will be a break. That doesn’t mean the season has started.
“This is what we go through every year and we find our farmers losing their resources by rushing to plant.”
According to him, the early rainfall activity is driven by atmospheric conditions.
“This is because the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the mid-latitude wave are triggering, bringing in moisture from the coast into the country. And before it restabilises, the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) has been swinging within latitude seven and eight. That’s why we’re having this rainfall.”
He stressed that farmers should rely strictly on the official onset dates contained in the NiMet forecast document.
“What we are trying to say is that this seems confusing and we are trying to guide our farmers against loss. Avoid planting because of these early rains. The onset date in the document, as clearly stated by the Honourable Minister, is provided for each local government.
“That means the risk of losing what you’re going to invest in agriculture, particularly rain-fed agriculture, is reduced by planting based on the guide in the document. If you plant this month because there were some rainfalls in the South and then you have one or two months without rain, that is a huge loss. And we’re trying to climate-proof our economy, particularly the agricultural sector.”
NiMet’s forecast indicates longer rainy seasons in Lagos, Benue, Oyo and several South-East states, including Enugu, Ebonyi and Abia, while Borno, Yobe and parts of Niger State may experience shorter seasons.
Rainfall cessation is projected to occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger states. However, a delayed end to the season is expected in Lagos, Enugu, Anambra, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna states.
Explaining why some states appear in multiple categories, Ijampe-Adamu said weather patterns do not respect administrative boundaries.
“The way the atmosphere behaves, it does not understand administrative boundaries. You can find the northern part of a state experiencing different weather from the southern part.
“That’s why we say parts of Ogun State may have early cessation, while other parts, when you refer to the document, you will see the local government definition. If you’re in northern Ogun or southern Ogun, your onset dates differ, your cessation differs. The atmosphere does not understand these administrative boundaries.”
Beyond rainfall, NiMet is also projecting higher-than-normal temperatures across the country in 2026.
“This year, the temperatures will be warmer than normal, both daytime and night-time. So your outdoor activities have to be guided because it affects both human health, including livestock and the rest.”
He said the forecast also includes health advisories.
“We have meningitis vigilance in this document. We have malaria vigilance, and this will help those in the health sector to know where they should mobilise resources to prevent an epidemic.”
According to him, the document cuts across multiple sectors.
“This document cuts across all sectors — water resources and the rest. And it’s important that every Nigerian has this.”
NiMet, founded in 1886 and established by law in 2003, is marking 140 years of providing weather and climate information to support agriculture, aviation, water management and disaster risk reduction.
Ijampe-Adamu said the agency has engaged state governments and local authorities to ensure the forecast reaches communities.
“The Director General of NiMet, Professor Charles Anosike, through the Honourable Minister, has written to state governors, inviting them to the unveiling of the Seasonal Climate Prediction. Thereafter, this document will be transmitted to the state governments, because that is where we have our communities and local governments.
“After this, we do what is called downscaling. We partner with state governments, NGOs and development partners. We go to states and local governments.”
He added that NiMet has simplified access to the forecast.
“Over the years, we’ve understood that releasing this forecast just in English does not really help. So we now have a smaller version for policymakers — very handy. You can look at the forecast and take decisions.
“We have it translated into Hausa, Yoruba and Igbo.”
The full 2026 forecast, he said, is available online.
“The soft copy is on our website, downloadable on our website, on our Twitter handle and all social media. And we are relying on the media, both radio and television, to get this to the grassroots.”
As climate variability and extreme weather events increasingly threaten lives and livelihoods, NiMet says timely and reliable weather information remains essential for safeguarding agriculture, public health, infrastructure and national economic growth.
Boluwatife Enome
