Political analyst Kenny Okolugbo has highlighted deep-seated challenges facing Nigeria’s major political parties, as the country prepares for upcoming conventions ahead of the 2027 elections, while pointing out to unresolved disputes in the PDP, internal consolidation in the APC, and emerging dynamics within the ADC as central to shaping the nation’s political trajectory.
Speaking In an interview with ARISE NEWS on Tuesday, Okolugbo explained the unfolding developments in the PDP. “The PDP, it’s very obvious that the advice that was given by the appeal court in Badu for them to reconcile will not hold water. You remember I used to be a member of the PDP and I was an integral member of that party before now. What I thought Shane Mackingay was going to do was that once Justice Omotosho ruled that the court, that the form that was not sold to Sule Lamidu was a basis for them to suspend the convention. And earlier, Justice Omotosho’s judgement had come to say that they should not hold the convention, any convention without the notice that was going to be given to INEC was illegal. I thought they were not going to go ahead with that convention, but they went ahead and they had the judgement from Justice Akinlade who said, oh, they can go on with that convention. And that they had set the ground for what is happening, because the truth about it was that after that convention.”
Okolugbo said the PDP is now holding its conventions. “And they are having their conventions on the 28th and 29th. And you see, how did the PDP come here? It was lack of internal democracy. For some of us who were very voicepharers about the PDP then, who appeared on countless of programmes to speak in support of the party, we clearly warned about the fact that internal democracy was not going to be adhered to in the party. It was going to lead to this path that they have found themselves. It’s a pity that they started with 14 governors, and now you have only two governors in the PDP. Out of the 14 governors they started with.”
Okolugbo then examined the APC’s situation, noting progress and ongoing challenges, “You can see the APC has put his house in order. Yes, there’s so much in the house, and there’s so much to be done. But the convention that is going to be done now is the fifth convention since the elective convention of 2022, and the inaugural convention of 2014. This is going to be the fifth convention for the APC. And it’s also very clear, of course, people will complain who wants to be the national chairman and national secretary of the party. But if you agree with me, that even Donald Trump, when he had become the candidate, decided that he was going to change the leadership of the Republican Party, he got Michael Warkley to be the chairman of the party. And he said that his daughter-in-law was going to be the co-chairman.”
He noted that leadership decisions can significantly shape a party’s direction, citing how Donald Trump’s appointments transformed the Republican Party. “And that changed the fortunes of the Republican Party at that point in time. Nobody would say that you would not want to be interested in who becomes the chairman or national secretary of your party. This has been zoned. And for those who have collected the forms, I think what they can do is also discuss the national leadership of the party, so that they can also realise that the consensus is reached for some of these positions. If it is a primaries for candidates, it’s a different ballgame. But for parties’ positions, it’s always better to be done by consensus. Instead of allowing people to go to the field and creating unnecessary vicaries and bad blood by the time you leave the convention ground.”
On PDP’s future momentum and recognition by INEC, Okolugbo stated, “Oh, certainly, they’re going to be recognised. INEC will definitely attend that convention. There’s a subsisting judgement of the Court of Appeal. The only thing that can stop that is if the Supreme Court rules otherwise. So that convention is going to be recognised by INEC. Now, as for the momentum, Nwike has been president in this re-election. And so if you’re going to participate in that convention, you will definitely have known the position of the man who is more of the leader of the party as it is right now. And for the other elected positions, they’ll decide where to field candidates and decide where not to field candidates, just like you saw what happened in his home state of River State and what happened in Abuja, where the PDP candidates stepped down from the APC candidates. And so it’ll be an understanding more like it. So that’s the situation. And you see, it’s impossible for Governor Makinde.”
Okolugbo observed that tensions between Governor Makinde and former River State Governor Wike are deep and unlikely to be reconciled. “It’s obvious that there’s irreconcilable differences now between Governor McIndee and the former governor of River State, Mr Nwike. And it’s a win-win situation for them now, as long as the Supreme Court rules otherwise. The judgement was about going to put their house in order, but the party is still factionalised after putting their house in order because the likes of Bala Mohamed and McIndee already said that we cannot work with this man. So what is it about putting their house in order that they don’t understand this judgement? Well, Makinde has an ambition. He wants to run. There is no way they can put their house in order if former Governor Wike has declared his support for President Tinubu. And McIndee believes he should be given a chance to throw his hat into the ring.”
Okolugbo noted that looking back at the 2020 primaries, many party members were dissatisfied when the zoning committee refused to allocate the presidency to the South-South region. “If you look at it in all honesty, we must also be honest. If you look at the primaries of 2020, that was before some of us left the party, we were not happy that the zoning committee refused to zone the presidency to the South-South. And that was one of the points of our departure, where we’re leaving. And that is one thing that has plagued the party since that decision that has come to haunt the party. And you know, Governor Wike feels very short-changed at that primaries, where you remember that former Governor of Sokoto State, Tambuwal, stepped down even after they were about to start voting and declared his support for Atiku. And so how do you not put your house in order if Seyi Makinde wants to run and Minister Nwike has said, no, I’m supporting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. There’s no way Makinde can get the ticket in an elective, in a presidential nomination convention after the convention that is going to be held on the 29th and on the 30th. It’s just a pity that PDP has found itself at this very particular point in time. I never even thought for one day PDP was going to find itself here. But it’s a lesson too for APC to know that if you do not allow internal democracy to take place, what has happened to the PDP could also happen to the APC.”
Okolugbo also analysed the ADC, commenting on emerging candidates and power-sharing conventions. “The ADC should learn from what the APC did, the merger. The merger they thought was impossible. But if you give it to President Inubo, he sacrificed his vice presidential ambition because he realised that if I don’t sacrifice my vice presidential ambition, we will not be able to go into these elections and defeat Goodluck Jonathan. And so he allowed the Osibanjo, his nominee, to have become the vice president and patiently waited for eight years. Now, the ADC can only think, as a public affairs analyst and somebody who has been a political analyst over the years, if the ticket is given to Peter Obi and he runs with someone like Kwakwansu, the minute Atiku gets that ticket, then they are self-imploded. And that’s the reality of the situation.”
Okolugbo explained that Nigeria has long-standing unwritten agreements on power rotation between the North and South. “We have had these unwritten agreements, whether you like it or not, whether the North will have the power for some time and the South will have the power for some time. President Inubo has just done four years. And therefore, if you have to challenge President Tinubu , you must get somebody from the South-South. And the strongest candidate that you have now that can take a crossboard is former Governor Peter Obi.”
Okolugbo noted that Rotimi Ameachi is also vying for leadership, bu And you look at Rotimi Ameachi, who is also interested. If Rotimi Ameachi could not field candidates in the elections, in the by-elections of the House of Assembly, left it all to former Governor Wike to run it without even a candidate from the PDP, and all the candidates were from the APC. I wonder how he can convince anybody that he can win his home state if he’s given the ticket of the ADC. But if you look at Governor Peter Obi, he swept all the elections in the Southeast, and practically, you know, derailed all the other candidates in his home state of Anambra. So this ADC, what really depends is on their self-ambition. If former Vice President Atiku decides to subsume his ambition, then the ADC can seek.”
Okolugbo said the ADC’s strategy mirrors what happened in the APC. “That sounds like a good strategy. Looking at what happened with the APC, as you already highlighted with President Inubo, almost sacrificing his ambition to allow and enable him to come eight years later. But Atiku Abubakar is 79 years old. If he waits for another four years, he’ll be about 81, 82 years old. That is when he’s sworn in as president. Does he have that time? And then he would also tell you that the North are also angling to come back, and he has that base. So in terms of that, we keep talking about the power and the influence of the North when it comes to politics.”
Okolugbo said that while age may not be on Atiku Abubakar’s side, he is comparable in age to leaders like Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Trump. “Well, he doesn’t have age on his side, but he’s of the same age as President Clinton, President Bush, and now the present president of America, Donald Trump. So if destiny says he’s going to become the president of Nigeria, maybe in 2031 he can do it for four years. And if God gives him health, he’s the only God that gives health. We’ve seen 90-year-olds who are as strong as 70-year-olds. But for now, practically speaking and looking at it logically, he’s the only president who can be defeated by and Atiku Abubakar. President Tutu took a very audacious move when he decided to remove fuel subsidy on the first day of his inauguration. He went through, he showed up through the storms at a time when we thought this country was going the way of Venezuela. And today we see that the economy has stabilised, both for the Iran and the American war. We have seen fuel going as low as $7.50 and so on. And the macroeconomics in this issue shows that there is light at the end of the tunnel. So you cannot have a Northern candidate at this particular point in time appeal to those of us from the South, for example, and also to the Northerners who believe that if they’re allowed to go for another four years, they’ll have a chance to go for eight years. The only way he can actually become the president is to be patient in 2031. I am not God, but that is the way I see it. He’ll be well into his eighties then. The question I’d like to ask you is, the question as regards this unwritten convention that we know power will go to the South for a certain time, power will go to the North.”
Okolugbo noted that in 2019, many people stepped aside to allow Atiku Abubakar’s emergence, respecting what was considered the North’s quota. “When it was 2019, a lot of people pretty much, you know, yielded the floor to be able to allow his emergence in 2019 because they still felt that was the quota of the North. But why is it now that it is a quota of the South? On two occasions now, he did it at first with the PDP. Now he wants to do it with the ADC, despite it being a quota of the South. This unwritten convention is not constitutional, I must have to say. Why is he repeatedly doing it? It’s something where you know that there’s an unwritten agreement that this is the way it should go, because it’s a pattern now. I agree with you. Your question is very apt and there could not be a better way for you to have put that question. You see, in 2019, some of us in the PDP were very optimistic that he was going to change the order. Why? Because we’re against the government of President Buhari. We thought President Buhari had done a whole lot of damage to the economy of this country, and a whole lot of things that we kept espousing on television, which today we have been proved right by. The facts and the indices that have come, that has not even been hidden by the government of President Tinubu. He was given that credit, who took over from the same party and was not shying away from the pitfalls of that government. And that was why in 2019, a lot of people were behind Atiku.”
Okolugbo said that Atiku’s best chance to win that election was with Governor Biaz as his running mate, but it didn’t work out at the time. “That was his best bet of winning that election, when he had Governor Biaz as his running mate. He didn’t make it at that particular point in time. You know President Buhari had a cult followership, and had a residue of votes that he always copied from the North, and also had governors this time who had established themselves. And so I think what it is, you know, is a case of ambition and not having the right advisors at this particular point in time to tell you when it is right or wrong. It’s not enough to just condemn Tinubu or hate Tinubu. You should be able to offer an alternative and tell Nigerians that this is what I will do when you are there. And I think in ADC, if they’ve been able to find themselves in the same party and Governor Kwakwansu joins them by the virtue of the appeal court decision on the NNPP, then they will have a very strong case to make. The case is, oh, we believe that Governor Bi can do it better, even though some of us believe that Governor Tinubu is doing very well.”
Okolugbo noted that if Kwakwansu joins him and honors his commitment to a four-year term, he could have a chance in 2031. “Kwakwansu can join him and we’ll have hope that if he keeps to his words and says that he’s only going to do a four-year term, then Kwakwansu can have a shot in 2031. But how all that will pan out depends on how they can manage their ambitions in ADC.”
Erizia Rubyjeana
